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#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)


Last week the Bloomberg commodity index closed positively + 1%. Led by the sharp rise in the agricultural sector, while profit-taking on industrial metals arrived. Setback for reflation trades after the presentation of the new stimulus plan by the new president Biden. The concerns of the operators are linked to the passage at the chambers. They fear it may be modified or watered down by strong opposition. The agricultural sector rose + 4.2%. Corn rose sharply + 7.1%. Ditto for wheat + 5.8%. Corn benefited from the sharp cut in US inventories. Wheat, on the other hand, was affected by the new tax on wheat exports to Russia. The tax was doubled to 50euro / ton from March 1st to June 30th, to try to stop the growth of domestic prices. High rise also for sugar + 5.5%. In a context of production uncertainty and increasing global demand. Tepid week for the energy sector + 0.3%. Brent ended the week slightly down at around $ 55 / b. The renewed strength of the dollar and still-high oil stocks impacted the rise in the energy sector. The worst sector of the week was industrial metals -1.7%. Zinc -4.1% and copper -2% are down. Gold dropped slightly -0.3%.


Brent reached a new high of 57.42 last week, before closing around $ 55 / b. Stochastic oscillators are in the overbought zone, although the trend remains upward at the moment. On the upside to be monitored is last week’s high at 57.42. Then the resistance at 59.07. On the downside, the first support is at 52.91, although the most important one is at 50.56.


Tepid week for the gold that went to test the 1807 area and then rebounded. It is currently in a neutral phase. On the upside, the first major resistance is at 1960. The 1807 level remains important to the downside. A breakout of it could decree the end of the bullish movement. At that point, the target could be 1706.


Copper has dropped below the $ 8,000 / mt mark. The stochastic indicator still signals an overbought situation. The trend remains upward. until the bullish trendline that started in October is broken and passes just above the 7700 level.


Corn has hit its peak since 2013. Indicators point to strong overbought. This makes imminent profit-taking more likely. To observe is the support at an altitude of 500, which could be tested soon.

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