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#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)

Last week the Bloomberg commodity index ended the week down by -1.7%. At the sector level, the trend was not uniform. The dollar lost ground against the euro. The worst sector of the week was agriculture one -5%. The rains in Brazil, even if considered favorable given the current drought, have been a pretext for profit-taking. Soybeans fell by 7.4%, wheat by 6.1%, coffee by 3.2%, sugar by 3.5%, and corn by 5.8%. The energy sector also fell -2.5%. Heavy drop for US natural gas, -8.9% thanks to forecasts of a milder climate. European gas rose, thanks to the harsher than expected climate. Oil ended the week almost unchanged, thanks to fears of new lockdowns. Positive week for the precious sector, + 1.7%. Gold, silver, and platinum closed positively. Finally, a not very positive week for industrial metals + 0.6%. Excellent performance for nickel and lead. Iron fell -1.8% thanks to fears of the drop in Chinese demand due to the New Year and the new lockdowns.


Almost neutral week for Brent. It moved sideways while staying below the resistance at 57.42. The supports to monitor are at 52.72 after 53 where the short-term uptrend line passes. If these supports will be broken, the next level to monitor would be 50.36. The weekly indicator is still overbought, there may still be profit-taking.


Gold remains in neutrality and continues to trade above 1806. On the downside, the first support to monitor is that at 1806, then at 1700. The indicators remain neutral.


After a correction phase, nickel started to rise again close above the resistance at 17965, hitting its highest level since December 2019. The next level to monitor is at 18894, 2019 high. Nickel has been rising for the fourth consecutive month, indicators remain strongly overbought. As nickel is likely to test the resistance at 18894, it is also possible for a correction to take place in the next 1-2 months.


Calm week for copper, which remains close to the highs of 2013, towards the 8000 area. The indicators are diverging, the weekly one remains overbought. A break of the support at 7800 could bring the prices down to 7587. The bullish trendline that started in March passes slightly below.

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