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#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)

The Bloomberg commodity index closed up 3% last week. This rise was mainly driven by the energy sector, which rose by 9%, thanks above all to US natural gas (+ 11.6%) and to Brent that has returned above 60 $ / b. Brent seems to benefit from positive demand and from the expectation of Biden’s 1900 billion aid plan. Bad week for TTF gas, down by 7.3%. The week was down for the precious metals sector -1.5%, even if only due to gold, which returned below the threshold of 1800. The US stock exchanges at the highest levels, the appreciation of the dollar and the slowdown in infections globally. Good week for the industrial metals sector + 2.2%, thanks primarily to Chinese demand which remains high. The countertrend iron ended the week down, -1.1%, for the third consecutive week. Tepid week for the agricultural sector + 0.2%. Cotton recorded + 2.6%, sugar + 3.6%.


After the three-week sideways phase, the Brent broke resistance 57.42 reaching 60. At this point the bearish trendline that started in 2018 passes. Its overcoming could project the prices towards the highs of 2019 and the 2020 around 65.8. All indicators are showing signs of overbought, especially the weekly one since last week. On the downside, the first support is at 57.35 followed by that at 55.


Weak week for gold that tried to break the support at 1800. The level was recovered just before the close on Friday, negating a further sign of weakness. The long-term trend remains bullish, even though the prices will remain below the 1936 threshold, but above 1700.


After the breakout of the bullish channel, copper returned to prices in the 7900 area. The indicators are discordant: the daily marks oversold while the weekly one overbought. If there is a further rise, the first resistance is at 8163, with the possibility of reaching the 9300/400 area.


For about three months, aluminum prices have remained within 2000. Reference resistance at 2068. The indicators are in the neutral area. A drop below the 1960 area would break the bullish trendline that started last May. In this case, the 1800 area would be a valid target. In the event of an upward break, the 2247 area could be tested.


The strength seen last week was negated with the push back of the resistance at 30. As long as the prices remain above 25, 30 could be retested, given the general uptrend. The indicators are neutral.

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