#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)
The rise of the Bloomberg Commodity Index continues, ending the week with a rise of 1.5%. The index was driven by a mix of factors, certainly including the wait for the Biden plan. In just under a month the contents of the plan could be unveiled, which could contain an infrastructure plan larger than that of the 1930s. And more generally, the optimism for the recovery, the pandemic situation, and fears about the production of some materials prime. The best sector of the week was that of industrial metals + 4.5%. There has been a panic-buying on some of them, as copper at its highest since 2011 has exceeded $ 9,000 / mt. there are concerns about production in the context of high demand and low inventories. Nickel + 5.5% which reached $ 20,000 at the highest level since 2014. Iron + 4.9% returned above 170 & / t. Good week for the energy sector + 1.7%, in the wake of the good performance of oil and the exceptional wave of frost in Texas which blocked 40% of the country’s oil production. The situation is slowly improving. OPEC + meeting is expected on March 4, differences between Russia and Saudi Arabia return. The rise in US rates affected the performance of gold, which lost 2.5% (the worst commodity since the beginning of the year). Little moved silver and palladium. Platinum was up 2.7%. The agricultural sector also rose + 2.3%. Sugar + 8%. Slight increases for cotton, wheat, and corn.
Brent broke above $ 65 last week, almost touching the bearish trendline that started in 2019. Oscillators are overbought, both daily and weekly. The forthcoming normalization of temperatures in Texas should consolidate the prices. The media to be monitored changes to 61,17 and 59.
Last week, gold broke the support at 1800, reaching just above 1762. The risks of descent to 1700 are increasingly concrete, in the context of the absence of contrary signals. The daily indicator signals oversold, while the weekly indicator is approaching this situation.
In the context of production deficit, copper is close to closing the eleventh consecutive month on a positive note. The overbought level remains high. The quotations have exceeded 9000. Above this threshold, the most imported resistances are placed at 9900 and 10000. The first resistance is instead placed at 9263.
Sugar at the highest level since 2016 has come to test 18. The indicators, both daily and weekly, signal overbought. If 18 were exceeded, the next resistance would be around 20. On the downside, the first support is at 16.96. A trace is likely in the next few weeks.