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#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)


Last week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed almost unchanged. The strong selling of the last two days of the week canceled out the increases of the first part of the week. The cause was the rise in US rates which caused uncertainty and caused a wave of risk aversion, penalizing riskier assets. The worst sector of the week was precious metals -2.8%. Gold is at its lowest since June, reaching just above $ 1700. In February, the decline was over 6%, making it the worst month since 2016. Strong sales also affected other precious metals, platinum in particular -8.3%. Negative week also for industrial metals -1.1%. Copper and aluminum closed just above par. While nickel -5.2%, zinc -3.1%, and lead -5.2% suffered heavy losses. In China, the first signs of weakening demand for copper are beginning to be felt due to the high price level. Iron, on the other hand, is up, + 2.9% back to its December highs, despite Chinese plans to reduce production for 2021. Mild week for the energy sector + 0.8%. Brent broke above $ 67. This week the Opec + meeting is expected, with Russia pushing for an increase in production, while the Saudis want to leave it unchanged. TTF gas drops, for the fifth consecutive week -3.9%. Good week for the agricultural index + 1.4%, first of all, cocoa and coffee, which rose by more than 6%.



The rise in oil prices continued last week, reaching above 67, and then tracing back to the weekend. The resistance at 65.5 continues to be the resistance level to monitor. Should the week close above this threshold, the way would open to the next resistance at 71.75. On the downside, the supports to monitor are at 63, 62, and 57.85. The indicator marks a marked overbought, both on the daily and weekly.


In the wake of the rise in global rates, gold broke the support at 1762, moving towards the 1700 area. A break of this area would sanction the break of the short-term uptrend. The weekly stochastic is oversold, while the daily is approaching that area.


Last week, copper hit its highest level since 2011, breaking above $ 9,600 / mt. On Friday there was a trace with a drop of more than 3.6%. The trend remains upward, even if the stochastic indicator remains strongly overbought both on a weekly and daily basis. On the downside, the first support is located in the 8805 area.

Natural Gas TTF

After rising to over 25 in January, natural gas started a bearish trend. It is currently trading just above 15.05. If this support were broken, the way would be opened for area 12.89. The Stochastic is oversold daily, while weekly it is approaching that threshold. Tracing possible in the short term.

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