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#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)


Mixed week for the Bloomberg commodity index which closed up 0.7%. The strong appreciation of the dollar penalized commodities the only sector on the rise was the energy sector. The unexpected outcome of the OPEC + meeting led to strong oil purchases. As per the agreement, production will not be increased in April (only by 150,000 b / d). Saudi Arabia maintains its decision to cut production by one million barrels. This morning, prices reached and exceeded $ 70$/b after the failed Yemeni attack on the main Saudi oil export terminal. After 5 consecutive weeks of decline, TTF gas also closed up + 4.3%. The rise in US rates combined with the sharp rise in the dollar penalized the precious metals sector -2%. Gold has dropped below $ 1700. Also down is silver -4.4% and platinum -4.8%. In China, news of a less accommodative policy in 2021, coupled with strategic changes in energy-intensive industries, caused sharp drops in the industrial metals sector -2%. Strong drop for nickel -11.6%. The agricultural sector drops slightly -0.3%. Soy + 1.8%.



After the OPEC + meeting, Brent broke the resistance at 65.5 and came close to the resistance at 71.15. If this last resistance is exceeded in closing, the space for the stroke would open at 75.6. Support at 65.5 remains to be monitored for any corrections.


The weakness of gold continues mainly due to the rise in US rates. Support at 1700 was broken. This signal raises the question of whether or not the bullish phase of the last two years has ended. The first support to monitor is at 1666. The indicators are in oversold territory, but with no clear signals.


In the wake of the weakness of the industrial sector, copper also returned below 9000 level. The support at 8805 has been tested and then rebounded. The next support is placed at 8100. The weekly stochastic is still overbought, while the daily is out of this condition. Nickel

Last week the trendline that had been in force since September 2020 has been broken. Subsequently, the weekly trendline starting from the 2020 lows has also been broken. The decline stopped at the support at 15911. The daily stochastic is oversold, while the weekly stochastic is coming out of overbought. If the support at 15911 will be broken, it would open room for a further drop to 14430.




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