#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)
Good week for the Bloomberg commodity index which closed up 3%. The more risk-friendly climate, the fall in the dollar, and the fall in US rates helped this rise. The positive climate benefited all sectors, primarily the energy sector which closed at + 5.6%. Brent closed + 6%, thanks to the decline in US inventories and the revision of demand estimates for 2021, revised upwards. Relations between Iran and the superpowers continue. TTF gas rose + 8.5%, thanks to the colder climate that persists on the European continent. Good week for the precious ones + 2.3%. Gold + 1.9% to the highest since the end of February. To favor gold there was also the authorization of the PBoC towards local banks for greater imports of the yellow metal. Silver + 3.1%, palladium + 5.3%. A good week also for the industrial metals sector + 1.7%, in the wake of good expectations for demand. Copper + 3.1%, aluminum + 2.2% at the highest levels since 2018. Nickel fell -1.6% due to fears of a possible increase in production in the future in the Philippines. Iron + 4.1% Lastly, the agricultural sector + 2.8%, with generalized increases. Raw sugar rose 7.2% on fears over Brazilian production.
Last week’s forecasts turned out to be correct, with Brent breaking up the trading range in which prices fluctuated. Brent broke above 65.5, now the first resistance is at 67.24. The next at an altitude of 70. On the downside, the first support to consider is that at 58.98. The daily oscillator is back in overbought territory.
Gold is at its highest since the end of February. The theoretical target of the movement should be above 1800, at 1837. The downside and a return below 1726, would negate the signal of the strength of recent weeks. At the moment the oscillators are divergent and do not give clear signals.
Copper broke the trading range that had been in place for several weeks. Resistance at 9081 was broken, then copper broke through 9300. Oscillators are currently not overbought. A test of resistance at 9428 is likely. If this level were broken, it would open the way to the highs of the year at 9611. On the downside, the support at 9100 remains to be monitored.
Strong rise for raw sugar which went to negate a particularly negative signal of the past few weeks. Prices broke the resistance at 16.30. The resistance at 16.30 is now the new support, followed by the one at 15.74.