#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)
The growth of the Bloomberg commodity index continues + 3.8%, at its highest since 2015. The context is that of the depreciation of the dollar and strong demand for some commodities. All the main sectors closed positively. Leading the agricultural sector + 5%. New all-time high for US timber. Arabica coffee + 8.1% following fears about production in Brazil and social tensions in Colombia. Corn also rose + 8.8%, wheat and soybeans both + 3.7%. Excellent week also for the industrial metals sector + 4.9%. New all-time high for copper, which has exceeded $ 10,700 due to strong global demand and fears for supply in the future. Iron is also up + 1.7%; Today, prices rose 14% following a fire in Taiwan’s main steel plant and following news of inspections in Chinese steel plants for June-July. Good week also for the energy sector + 2.2%. The rise in TTF gas continues, following various factors, such as; the temperature below the seasonal average, European stocks at their lowest in 5 years, and a new record of emission certificates that make gas cheaper than coal in European plants. Brent + 2.3% pending a rise in demand in the summer and following a cyberattack that blocked the main eastern oil pipeline in the US. Good week also for the precious sector + 4.2%. Silver + 6.2%, gold + 3.6%, platinum + 4.1%. Platinum -1% following a profit-taking.
Thanks to last week’s rise, Brent remained above the uptrend line that began last November. To monitor the support at 66.5, a break of it could lead the prices to fall towards the 60 area. On the upside, the first resistance is located at 71.25. Exceeding it could project prices towards area 75.
Last week, gold broke through the resistance at 1837. Although it then closed below it, this level remains valid this week as well. A little above passes the trendline that connects the historical highs to the highs of 2021. Overcoming it could restore strength to gold. Even in an environment of improvement, prices are compressing into a triangle formed by the long-term bullish trendline and the bearish one. Probably in the next few weeks, one of the two sides will be broken, causing a movement of greater importance.
New all-time high for copper which reached 10180. The first upward target calculated with Fibonacci is 11000. On the downside, a drop below 10000 would signal weakness.
The rise in aluminum continues. The current situation is strongly overbought. The first resistance level to be monitored is located at 2718. On the downside, the first support to be monitored is located at 2413. Subsequently, there is 2200, where the uptrend line started in 2020 passes.