#forexbreakfast focus commodity (eng)
A good week for the Bloomberg commodity index, up 2.1%, with all major sectors in positive territory. The best sector of the week has been the industrial metals sector + 4.7%; this despite the Chinese effort to mitigate the rise in prices and their zero-tolerance policy towards speculation. Some indiscretions in the sector would argue that in the context of global recovery, China would no longer have the necessary strength to “direct” prices. Aluminum + 4.7%, copper + 4.4%, nickel + 7.9%. Iron dropped -1.4%. The precious metals sector rose by 1.5%. Gold is back above 1900. Silver + 1.9%, palladium + 1.6%. The energy sector also rose + 2.9%. Brent recovered thanks also to good US macro data. Focus at the beginning of June on the OPEC + meeting in which we could begin to talk about end-of-year decisions and on nuclear negotiations with Iran. Lukewarm week for agricultural purchases + 0.9%. Arabica coffee + 8.2% at its highest since 2016. Wheat -1.6%.
The signs of weakness that emerged last week have been denied and prices moved back above the uptrend line that started last November. On the upside, the resistances to monitor are placed at 71.75 and then 75. On the downside, the first two supports are at 65.85 and 64.57.
At its highs for over 4 months, it exceeded 1900, breaking the bearish trendline that started from the all-time highs of 2020. The target seems to be 1962. The indicators are both overbought. A period of consolidation is therefore likely. On the downside, the first support to monitor is that at 1863 and then 1835.
Copper rallied back above 10000 last week while remaining below the resistance at 10369. Shortly thereafter, a dynamic resistance is present at 10525, the overcoming of which could restore momentum to copper prices. On the downside, the levels to be monitored are at 9620 and 9404.
Good week for palladium, although it remains within the bearish channel bounded at the top of 2874. At 2903 there is a dynamic resistance which would restore strength to palladium at 2903. On the downside, the supports to be monitored move to 2671 and 2547.