#forexbreakfast focus forex (eng)
After the initial risk-off climate, the week has ended with the dollar in general appreciation. The Eur / Usd exchange rate has remained stable below 1.18, especially after the announcement of the new ECB forward guidance. The worst currency of the week has been the South African Rand, weighed down by the attitude of the central bank, which left the reference rate unchanged in the last meeting.
In the meeting, the CB highlighted some risk factors for the economy, from the increase in covid infections to the delay in the vaccination campaign to the recent social unrest.
Bad week also for the Australian dollar after the announcement of new restrictions to contain the epidemic. The best currency of the week has been the Ruble, in a context of restrictive monetary policy and rising oil prices. The reference rate has been raised to 6.5% from the previous 5%.
Given the strength of the dollar, the Eur / Usd exchange rate stabilized around the 1.1738 support during the week. Only a confirmed break at the close could give strength to the bearish movement with a target of 1.16. On the upside, the first resistance stands at 1.1945, followed by that at 1.2044.
Moderate volatility during the week for the Eur / Gbp exchange rate, which touched the 0.8670 area, before recovering and returning below 0.86. However, the exchange is still in a lateral phase with margins of 0.8472 – 0.87. Only the break of one of the two sides will give greater direction to the exchange.
As anticipated the previous week, the approach to support at 128.83, combined with the strong oversold, caused the exchange to bounce back above 130. However, the trend remains negative with a probable target of 126.44.