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#forexbreakfast Commodities 02/05/2022

Last week the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.4%) has recovered. The best sector was energy (5%), while the worst was industrial metals (-5.3%). The latter was due to concerns about global demand in light of the US GDP contracting unexpectedly in the first quarter (-1.4%).

As regards currencies, another week marked by the generalized strength of the US dollar, which pushed the EURUSD below 1.05 for the first time in more than five years.


Brent Oil

Brent has risen slightly this week ahead of the major events, including a meeting of EU energy ministers this afternoon. The focus of the debate will be on the ban on Russian imports by the end of the year and on the issue of paying for raw materials in ruble.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=TVC%3AUKOIL

Technically, Brent is moving within a triangle, the break of which could result in a price increase. In the event of a rise above 110.30$/b, the quotes could quickly test the static resistance at 120.65$/b.


Copper prices have fallen below 10,000$/t due to concerns about weak Chinese demand. Technically, the return last week inside the triangle is a particularly negative signal, raising the prospect of a test of the lower part, which is located just above the 9000$/t area. Meanwhile, a significant intermediate static support begins at 9337$/t.



Aluminium fell for the fifth week in a row (-6% forward to three months) due to demand concerns, as the main US manufacturer (Alcoa) revised down its global demand estimates. The US economy has underperformed, and it is possible that Chinese exports will remain high in the near term. Technically, the metal remains below the bearish trendline that began in March, with prices approaching the first significant dynamic support level (2972$/t).

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